Round table "The War of Figures in Sociological Measuring. Whom and What to Believe?"

On 11th of September 2007 in Institute of sociology NAS of Ukraine was held round table "The War of Figures in Sociological Measuring. Whom and What to Belive?" The round table under such title initiated by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation gathered the heads of leading sociological companies with the purpose to discuss a need for various companies to standardize their sociological surveys.

Sociologists acknowledge some extent of their own guilt in the public’s certain discredit of the nowadays sociology. It is not only about dishonest sociologists which do their job poorly. Very often polls held by respected companies using different methodologies may produce diverging results. This discredits the sociology as such. Therefore, the time is to agree upon standardization of methodology both for sociological surveys in general and for measurements of pre-election ratings in particular. The participants of the round table were: Iryna Bekeshkina, Research Director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation; Oleksandr Vyshnyak, Director of Ukrainian Sociology Service; Volodymyr Paniotto, Director General of Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Professor of the National University “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy”; Yevhen Kopatko, Director of R&B; Mykhailo Mishchenko, Deputy Director of Sociological Service, Oleksandr Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Research; Oleksandr Bukhalov, Director of FOM-Ukraine Foundation; and Borys Sagalakov, Research Director of the All-Ukrainian Sociological Service.

 Iryna Bekeshkina, Research Director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, tried to explain to journalists the reason for selection of such title for the round table: “There is not a war of ratings or a war of sociologists like it used to be, but a war of figures. Strictly speaking, such situation repeats from election to election, but now it is egregious. A mediator has appeared between a bunch of figures and mass media. Such mediator is companies printing pre-election ratings which are usually different from the ratings of leading sociological agencies. The know-how of this election campaign is also active TV presentation of such counterfeit product.” Ms. Bekeshkina tried to persuade journalists not to buy into cheap ratings of such wheeler-dealers, but to trust more to the data of the leading and proved sociological agencies of the country. “It is extremely difficult to set up a sociological service. It needs specialists. It needs network across Ukraine and training for pollsters. It needs office space in the regions. It calls for tremendous efforts of the staff, which should consist of at least 200 persons. I mean that it is a serious business, which requires large investments. Nobody will invest such money for an election campaign only. Therefore, the companies emerging for elections only do not have anything in common with the real sociology.” Iryna Bekeshkina also forecasts that in order to confuse the voters a lot of fake exit polls will occur on the day of election. 

When analyzing the sociological prognoses of the previous elections made by key sociological agencies, Oleksandr Vyshnyak, Director of Ukrainian Sociology Service, noted that the mean accuracy concerning top ten parties was from 1.4% to 2.1% while the mean error was twice as large and reached 3.5%. Mr. Vyshnyak considers that differences in ratings produced by different sociological companies are caused by lack of agreement on the methodology of such rating count among sociologists. “During the previous election and the election before the last we produced three ratings: for all the interviewed, for those who intended to vote and for those who intended to vote and had made their choice. It proved to be even worse because one news agency provides one rating, another one provides another rating, and yet another one provides the third rating. It turned out that one company had held one poll, but its findings were quite different.” Oleksandr Vyshnyak proposed his colleagues to agree upon the methodology of rating count and to standardize conducting of sociological surveys.

 In the opinion of Volodymyr Paniotto, Director General of Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the public in general trusts sociologists: none of journalists opposes to the hierarchy of winning parties measured by leading sociological services. Volodymyr Paniotto also listed professionalism criteria of sociological companies and appealed to journalists to trust the companies with: long record of service; wide range of research not limited to political matters; membership in Ukrainian and international sociological organizations; and professional staff. Besides, a professional sociological service must have its web-site, which would contain the information on how the surveys are conducted. Volodymyr Paniotto also advised journalists to compare the results of pre-election polls with official election returns and to take more interest in sociologists’ opinions about specific sociological services.

Add New Comment

	Your Name *
	Comment *
	Please enter symbols from the image. *